Tuesday, February 27, 2024

College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 2/12/24

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The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming — especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let’s check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs

Under 150.5 (-112)

TCU plays host to the worst team in the Big 12 — West Virginia. The Mountaineers’ defense has been like a gaping hole, ranking 123rd in adjusted defensive efficiency while giving up 90.0 points per game (PPG) over their past two contests. Plus, the Horned Frogs rank in the 93rd percentile at 81.8 PPG.

With West Virginia’s weak defense and TCU’s explosive offense, the total sits at 150.5. However, I believe this number is a bit high, and the game could be headed for the under due to the Mountaineers’ inability to score.

WVU has the second-worst adjusted offensive efficiency in the Big 12 at 172nd, and they are in the bottom 13% with 68.0 PPG. One of the Mountaineers’ strengths has been getting to the free throw line with 20.6 shots per game (69th percentile). However, the Frogs do not allow free throws in bulk at 19.3 attempts per game.

If West Virginia is relying on scoring away from the free throw line, they could be in trouble as they rank in the bottom 52% of field goal percentage (FG%), two-point percentage, and three-point percentage. The Mountaineers have totaled only 65.0 PPG over their last five games.

Ultimately, I have a hard time trusting WVU’s offense. The unit would likely need a solid game for the over to hit. I do not see the Mountaineers’ offense doing enough, leading to the under.

Elon Phoenix at Towson Tigers

Towson -11.5 (-115)

The Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) has some potential to make noise in March with six teams within KenPom’s top 153 teams. Towson ranks 153rd and has a favorable matchup against Elon — 321st in KenPom.

Following back-to-back losses, the Tigers could get back on track against the Phoenix. Towson has a long list of potential advantages.

Rebounding could be perhaps Elon’s biggest worry as they are in the bottom 8% of defensive rebounding percentage, while Towson is in the 99th percentile of offensive rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage. Plus, the Tigers excel on the defensive glass, ranking in the 88th percentile of defensive rebounding percentage.

Additionally, Towson is in the 94th percentile of opponent PPG and field goal attempts allowed per contest. Meanwhile, the Phoenix is 231st in adjusted offensive efficiency and lean on three-point shots (73rd percentile in attempts per game). The Tigers could have the answer yet again as they are in the 86th percentile of three-point shots allowed each contest.

Elon is 3-7 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games. Towson has too many advantages in this one; give me the Tigers to cover at home.

No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Over 143.5 (-110)

Kansas will be an underdog for the third time over their last 10 games as they visit Texas Tech on Monday. The over is 8-2 over the Red Raiders’ past 10 contests; they often get into shootouts with the 13th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in college basketball. The Jayhawks rank 32nd in offensive efficiency, which seems slightly underwhelming. However, Kansas still carries some elite scoring stats, like ranking in the 98th percentile of two-pointers made per game and in FG%.

Texas Tech’s defense doesn’t draw much praise, ranking 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but along with the Jayhawks, the Red Raiders rank among the top 50 in close twos allowed per game. Both teams have exceptional interior defenses, which could mean an increase in three-point volume.

Each squad is within the 68th percentile of three-point percentage. Texas Tech has especially excelled from three, converting 37.5% of their shots from deep (93rd percentile). Opponents shoot 40.3% of their shots from three against Kansas (among the bottom 100 for defense). The Red Raiders’ defense isn’t much better in the category with opponents taking 39.7% of their shots from deep.

The three-point line will likely play a big factor in this game, and both teams possess the shooters to excel. Texas Tech’s Chance McMillian (10.3 PPG; 42.5% from three) is one sharpshooter to watch as he has averaged 15.2 PPG while shooting 46.9% from three over his last five contests. Kansas’ Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.5 PPG; 36.1% from three) has also made 3 of his last 7 three-point shots (42.9%).

Ultimately, I think both offenses have enough shooters to take advantage of weaknesses. This matchup could roll to the over.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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