Tuesday, February 27, 2024

NBA Betting Guide for Monday 3/20/23: A Moneyline Parlay Is Showing Value

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Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Two-Team Moneyline Parlay

Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-330)
New York Knicks Moneyline (-370)
Parlay Odds: -153

There are only six games on the board, and there isn’t exactly an abundance of early-day value. There are a ton of questionable tags that are potentially extremely impactful, and beyond that, there are some tight lines otherwise.

So, I’m turning to a two-team moneyline parlay to start the card.

Firstly, I like the 76ers to beat the Chicago Bulls in Philadelphia. numberFire’s model likes the Sixers to win that game 80.9% of the time and thinks their moneyline by itself is worthy of a two-star (i.e. two-unit) wager.

Every win will matter for Philadelphia now for seeding purposes, and the Bulls are holding a just 25.8% chance to reach the playoffs, according to numberFire’s model. My model is a bit lighter on the Sixers (70.7%) than numberFire’s (80.9%) but is higher on the other side in this parlay.

As for the Knicks, they’ve won three straight, including a 116-110 win over the Denver Nuggets at Madison Square Garden on Saturday in a return home after a roadtrip and a layoff to get rested up.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are listing both Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert as questionable, which makes their rotation pretty, well, uncertain. They’ve lost three straight and now play a third consecutive road game. My model likes New York (87.7%) much more than the one at numberFire (73.4%) does, so it balances out.

Ultimately, the expected parlay odds for me should be -175, but this is bettable at -153.

Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz

Over 241.0 (-110)
Utah Jazz +5.0 (-108)

The Sacramento Kings, vying for a top-three seed in the Western Conference, are heading to Utah to take on the Jazz, who — at 34-36 — are on the outside looking in currently in the playoff situation. numberFire’s model gives them a 27.0% chance to make the playoffs.

Utah is without Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton, and they are listing Lauri Markkanen as questionable.

The Kings are listing Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles as questionable, too.

As a result, my model is looking at a +2.9 net rating for the Kings based on their rotation and a -2.3 for the Jazz, which — once you account for home-court advantage, pace, and a little bit more — means that the Kings are expected to be favored by 1.8 rather than 5.0.

numberFire’s model has the Jazz +5.0 as a four-star play and also likes their moneyline (+172) as a four-star play, too. I’m a little less interested in the moneyline due to the playoff implications here.

What also stands out on a light night of betting value is the over.

I’m viewing both sides, even once accounting for injuries, as above-average offenses (particularly the Kings) and as below-average defenses. My model is projecting a total of 244.0.

numberFire’s model is expecting a final tally of 249.3. The over is a three-star suggestion as a result.

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