Thursday, February 29, 2024

NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Monday 2/12/24

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Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 11.5 Rebounds (-120) at FanDuel

Giannis grabbed 14 boards against a dreadful Charlotte Hornets team in his last game but was quiet on the boards before that, going under this line in five straight games as the Milwaukee Bucks continued to struggle. Whether or not it has anything to do with Doc Rivers’ appointment, he hasn’t been a large threat on the glass in recent weeks.

The Bucks are hosting the Denver Nuggets, who boast the fourth-best rebound rate in the league. Nikola Jokic is also one of the best rebounders and will make it difficult for Giannis to have a strong day on the boards, especially since they play at a slower pace and limit shot opportunities.

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Paul George Under 20.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel

George averages 22.5 points per game and scored 33 his last time out. That said, he went under this line in six straight games just before that and has taken more of a back seat to Kawhi Leonard and even James Harden in the Los Angeles Clippers’ offensive hierarchy.

LA is taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have the best defensive rating in the NBA. George faced the T’Wolves once this season and scored 16 points, and he also only managed 13 in a lone matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have the second-best defensive rating in the association. 

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Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds (-106) at FanDuel

Wemby almost inexplicably collected a total of just five rebounds in his last two games after grabbing 13+ in three straight before that. Even though he’s still just 20 years old, he often looks hungry to make up for his mistakes or shortcomings after a tough night, and we expect to see an intensified rebounding focus from him on Monday. 

The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Toronto Raptors, who are only 22nd in rebound rate. They have wings who can contribute to the effort but nobody that can match Wemby, who could be in line for a strong day against a team that’s played terrible basketball for a while now.

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Buddy Hield 20+ Points (+420) at FanDuel

Hield scored 20 and 23 points in his first two games with the Philadelphia 76ers, one with and one without Tyrese Maxey. He also made four threes in both games and has a larger role to fill in the offense than he did in Indiana, especially during the time that Joel Embiid is nursing a knee injury.

The main roadblock for Hield is the Cavaliers’ outstanding defense (and slower offensive tempo that limits possessions). However, since Maxey is really the only shot-creator on the court, watch for Cleveland to shade their defense toward him and for Hield to have lots of open looks on the perimeter.

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Tyrese Haliburton Over 31.5 Points+Assists (-104) at FanDuel

Haliburton is questionable with a hamstring issue but just played 30 minutes against the New York Knicks, his most since he suffered a hamstring strain on January 8, and put up 34 combined points and assists in that game. He also averages a combined 33.8 for the season and has proven he can beat this line if he gets enough minutes.

What makes Haliburton’s path to an over even easier is his opponent, the Charlotte Hornets, who give up the most points per 100 possessions in the entire league. Even if this game ends in a blowout, Haliburton should be able to fill up the box score enough to climb over his line.

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