Thursday, February 29, 2024

NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Sunday

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Assists and underdogs feature prominently on Sunday’s light slate. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Sunday are based on the top NBA odds.

Just like Saturday, Sunday’s NBA slate features some early games (Nuggets-Nets, Suns-Thunder, and Hawks-Spurs), so we’ll bypass those and focus on the main slate which tips off at 6:10 p.m. ET. Target the point total in the Miami Heat’s trip to the Motor City to face the Detroit Pistons, and pick another upset from a home underdog when the Houston Rockets host the New Orleans Pelicans.

Assists are the name of the game for our featured player props, as power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks face the Toronto Raptors while point guard D’Angelo Russell and the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Orlando Magic.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Sunday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Denver Nuggets (-2) vs. Brooklyn Nets
  • Phoenix Suns (+1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Atlanta Hawks (-9.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs
  • Miami Heat (-10) vs. Detroit Pistons
  • New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5) vs. Houston Rockets
  • Toronto Raptors (+8.5) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
  • Orlando Magic (+6.5) vs. L.A. Lakers

Sunday’s NBA player prop picks

Assists: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 5.5 vs. Raptors (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Giannis averages 5.5 assists per game this season, and had at least that many dimes in each of the last five seasons. This year, he’s handed out at least six in 23 of 55 games, including two of his last four and three of his last six.

The Raptors surrender the sixth-most assists per game to opponents this season, and Giannis fared well against them in recent campaigns. Over the last three seasons, Greek Freak faced Toronto five times and dished at least eight dimes in four of them, cruising past this prop. He produced a triple-double earlier this year, and it’s a great opportunity to cash in on a plus-money prop that shouldn’t have such profitable odds.

Assists: D’Angelo Russell Over 7.5 vs. Magic (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No LeBron James? No problem… at least from a facilitator point of view. In five games since rejoining the Lakers’ lineup, D’Lo averaged 7.6 dimes and handed out at least eight three times. With James out of commission, Russell took over as the team’s primary playmaker, and the results have been favorable.

Orlando allows the ninth-most assists per game this season. Russell handed out six assists in each prior matchup with the Magic, while playing with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Lakers are 6.5-point home favorites, and L.A. should have no problem putting up points in this one. That means an increased opportunity for assists and some juicy, plus-money odds.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA game picks

Total: Heat-Pistons Under 218 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As much as we love a good Over, it’s impossible to pick that outcome for this one. The Miami Heat are huge road favorites, meaning this contest could be a blowout. Miami is 4-1 to the Over across its last five and 5-13 as a road favorite this season.

These teams hit the Under when they met previously this year. The Detroit Pistons made the Under in four of their last five and hit it in nine of 12 games since the All-Star break.

Since the break, Detroit scored the second-fewest points per game (105.1) and Miami had the seventh-fewest at 111.9. Detroit’s roster remains a mess, with multiple key injuries that should limit scoring production. Pair that with Miami’s defensive-minded approach and the Heat’s typically low-scoring offense, and it’s a recipe to hit the Under, even at its modest 218 total.

Upset: Rockets ML vs. Pelicans (+185 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

The Houston Rockets don’t know the meaning of the word “tank.” The team is rolling lately, covering in six of their last eight with three straight wins. Rockets shooting guard Jalen Green and power forward Jabari Smith have been absolutely phenomenal during that three-game stretch, and this young team is hitting second gear as the season winds down.

The New Orleans Pelicans lost eight of their last 11 since the All-Star break, sporting a 3-8 ATS record in that span. Focus on the moneyline rather than the spread here, but each team’s ATS record highlights how well each squad performed recently. The wheels came off New Orleans’ once magical season, and the Rockets have galvanized, so take a plus-money wager on the hot squad.

NBA best bets made 3/19/2023 at 11:46 a.m. ET.

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