Saturday, March 2, 2024

Super Bowl 2025 odds: 49ers are early favorites; Chiefs, Ravens and Bills among top teams

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The Chiefs beat the 49ers in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII

Is it too early to start looking ahead to Super Bowl LVIX held in New Orleans? Never. The San Francisco 49ers are Super Bowl favorites at +500 on BetMGM, despite losing to the Kansas City Chiefs (+700 to repeat) in Super Bowl 58. The Baltimore Ravens (+850), Buffalo Bills (+1200) and Detroit Lions (+1200) have the next-best odds.

Of course, the Chiefs are still one of the favorites to win the AFC. It’s assumed that general manager Brett Veach will do everything in his power to find help for Patrick Mahomes after the offense’s struggles for most of the regular season.

Along with the Chiefs, the Ravens, Bills and Bengals are the favorites from the AFC. The Jets have worse odds now (+3000) than they did at this time last season (+2500), and that was even before they had acquired Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay, though rumors were already swirling that Rodgers wanted out of Wisconsin and into the Big Apple.

Of the teams with new head coaches, the Los Angeles Chargers (+2500) have the best odds with new coach Jim Harbaugh. Los Angeles is $45 million over the salary cap for next season, according to OverTheCap.com.

If you’re looking for teams that can make a splash in free agency, the Commanders, Titans, Patriots, Bengals and Colts have the most salary cap room right now.

Detroit (+1200) has completed its 180 turn from lovable losers to now a favorite in the NFC. Dallas and Philadelphia are still near the top of their respective conferences, but there will be changes for both teams this offseason. Dallas lost defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to Washington and Philadelphia hired Kellen Moore to be its new offensive coordinator and Vic Fangio to lead its defense.

The Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots all have the worst odds of winning the Super Bowl. All three teams will have new coaches next year.

Putting bets on favorites this far out probably isn’t a good betting strategy, though. Consider that the Chiefs had worse odds entering this year’s playoffs (+1000) than they did after last year’s Super Bowl win (+600).

Super Bowl 59 odds (@BetMGM)


To help understand where these teams might be going this offseason, especially around expectations, we checked in with our beat writers to gauge how they view the teams going into the offseason.

Detroit Lions +1200

The Lions have the fifth-best Super Bowl odds in 2024, and that feels just about right. In their first postseason run together, with the fifth-youngest roster in the NFL, the Lions reached the NFC Championship game and held a 24-7 lead. Had they made the necessary plays to win the game, it would’ve been them in Las Vegas hoping to hoist the Lombardi. Instead, they’ll use a disappointing loss as motivation and work to get there next season. Detroit’s best talent — Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, etc. — should only get better with age. QB Jared Goff has now taken two teams to NFC Championship games and is coming off another strong season. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is back for another year, turning down head coaching opportunities yet again. And the Lions will look to improve a secondary that needs an influx of talent. Detroit’s schedule and division look tougher on paper, but considering all the Lions have going for them, they’re well-positioned for another deep postseason run.  —Colton Pouncy, Lions writer

New York Jets +3000

The Jets, as much as any team on this list, have the ability to swing wildly in either direction. That’s the Aaron Rodgers factor. The Jets have a lot of holes to fill on offense (offensive line, wide receiver) and problems to overcome (offensive coordinator) but ultimately how far the Jets go (or not) depends largely on what version of Rodgers they get. He will turn 41 this season and is coming off Achilles surgery, so it’s fair to be skeptical that the Jets will make noise — but they still have one of the best NFL defenses, which will mostly remain intact, and bring back two stars on offense in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. —Zack Rosenblatt, Jets writer

Green Bay Packers +2500

I’m surprised the Packers’ odds are that long, considering how they finished the 2023 season. After starting 3-6, they made the playoffs, dismantled the Cowboys in the wild-card round, and gave the 49ers a fight in the Divisional Round. In his first season as the full-time starting quarterback, Jordan Love showed why he can be the guy for Green Bay for the next decade-plus, and most of his supporting cast, on an offense that flourished in the second half of the season, will return in 2024. The big questions are in the other two phases. Can the Packers straighten out their kicking game (pun intended), and can new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley maximize the talent on his side of the ball in a way Joe Barry couldn’t? If Green Bay can do both, there’s no reason the Packers can’t be in contention to bring the Lombardi Trophy back home. —Matt Schneidman, Packers writer

To take the Dolphins as serious Super Bowl contenders, they have to beat teams on the same level as them or better on a semi-consistent basis. That didn’t happen in 2023, with only one win against a team that finished with a winning record — Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. The 2024 schedule will be tougher, too, playing the AFC South, NFC West and the Packers outside of Miami’s AFC East opponents.

Tua Tagovailoa, as of now, will enter the final year of his rookie contract in 2024. Will Miami take care of its quarterback before Week 1? Plus, you have to wonder if the defense can come together after numerous injuries, specifically at edge rusher, which took a toll late in the 2023 campaign. Then you have to wonder if the Dolphins are the best or even second-best team in the AFC East with the Bills as the reigning champs and Aaron Rodgers set to take more than a handful of snaps at QB like last year’s injury-plagued season. —Larry Holder, NFL senior writer

You know the Texans will be one of the sexiest bets heading into the 2024 season — two of the top young players at premium positions with quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson. Throw in budding star coach DeMeco Ryans and an improving roster, and Houston has all the makings of the team ready to take the next step.

Now, the Texans won’t be facing a bottom-barrel schedule this season after winning the AFC South. So they’ll get the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills, along with the AFC East and NFC North joining their AFC South slate — throw a healthy NFL Draft compadre, Anthony Richardson, back for the Colts. But the Texans seemed to stand tall against all comers during the 2023 regular season before falling flat against the Ravens in the AFC divisional round. I expect the Texans to improve in 2024 and for Stroud only to get better after one of the strongest rookie QB campaigns in recent memory. If that happens, you never know … —Holder

(Top photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

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